inside DATA VISUALs: edition 1
The effects of President Trump’s tariffs on Kazakhstan’s exports to the United States
May 26, 2025
Our opening edition explores the effects of President Trump’s recently imposed tariffs on Kazakhstan’s exports to the United States. The Kazakhstani Ministry of Trade and Integration has indicated that tariffs apply to only 4.8% of exported goods, suggesting that the economy would be largely unaffected. While the Ministry’s statement provides a brief preliminary analysis, mentioning major goods covered by tariffs and those exempted, our visualization offers a closer look at goods categories, figures, and shares. But first, some context:
Brought to you by Rabiga Akhmetova, Ilona Levdonskaya, and Zhibek Akimova, with contributions from the Editorial Board.
Our opening edition explores the effects of President Trump’s recently imposed tariffs on Kazakhstan’s exports to the United States. The Kazakhstani Ministry of Trade and Integration has indicated that tariffs apply to only 4.8% of exported goods, suggesting that the economy would be largely unaffected. While the Ministry’s statement provides a brief preliminary analysis, mentioning major goods covered by tariffs and those exempted, our visualization offers a closer look at goods categories, figures, and shares. But first, some context:
Brought to you by Rabiga Akhmetova, Ilona Levdonskaya, and Zhibek Akimova, with contributions from the Editorial Board.
The effects of President Trump’s tariffs on Kazakhstan’s exports to the United States
On April 2, 2025, as part of the "Liberation Day" trade policies, US President Donald Trump introduced a 10% tariff on all imports, excluding those from Russia, Belarus, Cuba, Canada, Mexico, and North Korea. In addition, "reciprocal" tariffs were announced to be imposed starting July 8 on more than 50 countries, including Kazakhstan. Although these tariffs were intended to apply universally, the White House specified a list of exempted goods.
Around the world, these tariffs have been criticized for being labeled "reciprocal," with governments and experts disputing the White House’s assessment of foreign tariffs on US imports. In an interview with Euronews, economist Andrew Kenningham claims that the EU’s tariffs on the US account for around 3%, as opposed to the 39% stated by Trump. Similarly, referring to Eurasian Economic Union policies, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Trade and Integration reported that US exports face tariffs of up to 10%, which sharply contrasts with the White House’s claims of 54%.
While these discrepancies may reflect a misunderstanding or miscalculation of trade data, the White House explains them by the use of a distinct methodology: their formula takes into account not just the tariffs other countries place on US goods, but also attempts to "balance bilateral trade deficits". Interestingly, in its statement on the tariffs, the Kazakhstani Ministry underscores its commitment to equal and non-discriminatory trade with the US, with respect to international obligations.
Despite being the only Central Asian state with additional reciprocal tariffs imposed, Kazakhstan’s exports to the US have few close substitutes, which is why the economy avoids major demand shocks. Nevertheless, given the EU economies’ susceptibility to global shifts and declining exports to the US, their potentially reduced demand for imports raises uncertainty about President Tokayev’s plans to increase exports to the EU.
On April 2, 2025, as part of the "Liberation Day" trade policies, US President Donald Trump introduced a 10% tariff on all imports, excluding those from Russia, Belarus, Cuba, Canada, Mexico, and North Korea. In addition, "reciprocal" tariffs were announced to be imposed starting July 8 on more than 50 countries, including Kazakhstan. Although these tariffs were intended to apply universally, the White House specified a list of exempted goods.
Around the world, these tariffs have been criticized for being labeled "reciprocal," with governments and experts disputing the White House’s assessment of foreign tariffs on US imports. In an interview with Euronews, economist Andrew Kenningham claims that the EU’s tariffs on the US account for around 3%, as opposed to the 39% stated by Trump. Similarly, referring to Eurasian Economic Union policies, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Trade and Integration reported that US exports face tariffs of up to 10%, which sharply contrasts with the White House’s claims of 54%.
While these discrepancies may reflect a misunderstanding or miscalculation of trade data, the White House explains them by the use of a distinct methodology: their formula takes into account not just the tariffs other countries place on US goods, but also attempts to "balance bilateral trade deficits". Interestingly, in its statement on the tariffs, the Kazakhstani Ministry underscores its commitment to equal and non-discriminatory trade with the US, with respect to international obligations.
Despite being the only Central Asian state with additional reciprocal tariffs imposed, Kazakhstan’s exports to the US have few close substitutes, which is why the economy avoids major demand shocks. Nevertheless, given the EU economies’ susceptibility to global shifts and declining exports to the US, their potentially reduced demand for imports raises uncertainty about President Tokayev’s plans to increase exports to the EU.
Table 1 shows the share and value of Kazakhstan's 2024 exports to the US across 21 categories of goods, based on the 2022 edition of the Harmonized System (HS) Nomenclature, a standardized system for classifying traded products. Notably, 12 categories are fully covered by the tariffs, 8 include exempted goods, and 2 categories are not exported at all.
*The HS Nomenclature, developed by the World Customs Organization and used by over 200 economies, represents 6-digit codes. Countries can extend these codes for more detailed classifications. For example, the US uses 8-digit codes, while Kazakhstan uses 10-digit codes.
Figures 2(a) and 2(b) particularly illustrate the share of exempted goods within the 8 partially affected categories. For clearer and more comprehensible visualization, the cells in the treemaps represent goods grouped by the first 2 digits of the HS codes. The shaded regions of these cells represent the proportion of 6-digit subcategories that are subject to tariffs within each 2-digit group. (Consult our methodology for more)
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Want to know how we processed the data? See our Methodology
Want to know how we processed the data? See our Methodology
